By Daniel Rapaport
The Home of Golf could be underwater as soon as 2050, according to a new climate-change study.

The study, released by Climate Central—an organization comprised of leading scientists and journalists who study climate change’s impact on society—and analyzed by The Herald predicts large swaths of Scotland’s coastline could be submerged due to increased annual flooding and sea level rise. This includes St. Andrews Links, located in the town of St. Andrews on Scotland’s eastern coastline.

An image from Climate Central’s interactive map that predicts where the water levels will have overrun the coast in 2050 (areas marked in red) shows that the Old Course at St. Andrews would essentially be submerged.

Climate Central published an interactive map to show which areas could be affected. It predicts a widening of the River Clyde, which would impact areas to the west of Glasgow, as well as damage to Dundee, Fife, Stirling and a number of other Scottish metropolitan areas.

St. Andrews’ Old Course is one of five Scottish courses in the Open Championship’s 10-course rota. The map also suggests two other Scottish rota courses—Carnoustie and Royal Troon, both located on the coast—could be severely impacted.

Photo from Climate Central’s interactive map predicts water levels for 2050.

“As these maps incorporate big datasets, which always include some error” an explainer on Climate Central’s website reads, “these maps should be regarded as screening tools to identify places that may require deeper investigation of risk.”

This is not the first time Scotland’s coastal golf courses have been included in warnings about rising sea levels. In 2018, the Climate Coalition released a paper called “Game Changer: How climate change is impacting sports in the U.K.”

“Unchecked, the impacts of climate change could significantly affect the sport over the long term, particularly in Scotland,” the report states, noting that one in six of Scotland’s 600 courses are located on coastline.

The 2018 report used Montrose Links, a course that dates to 1562 and sits on the northeast coast of Scotland, as a case study. The North Sea has crept 70 meters closer to the course in recent years, according to research published by Dundee University.

“As the sea rises and the coast falls away, we’re left with nowhere to go,” Chris Curnin, director of golf at Montrose, is quoted in the report. “Climate change is often seen as tomorrow’s problem, but it’s already eating away at our course.”

The potential impact has drawn the attention of the R&A—the governing body of golf in the United Kingdom, and the organization that puts on the Open Championship—which started the Golf Course 2030 initiative in 2018. The goal of the project is to “consider the impacts, both positive and negative, of the changing climate, resource constraints and regulation on course condition and playability.”

In January 2020, the R&A pledged £650,000 to various sustainability projects in an attempt to proactively safeguard courses from the effects of climate change. The organization has also tapped Steve Isaac as its Director of Sustainability.

“The planet’s climate is shifting and we can all expect more extreme conditions and increasingly unpredictable weather patterns in the future,” reads a section on the R&A’s website dubbed “Planning for Climate Change.”

“This will have a major impact on the way golf courses must be managed and it is important to ensure that the management approach at your golf club can cope with whatever the weather throws at it. A sustainable approach to course management offers the best chance of stability in unpredictable times.”

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By Ryan Herrington
A future without the Old Course at St. Andrews? Or Royal Troon? According to a new report, it’s a reality golf fans could potentially face in the wake of data about the impact of global warming.

The Climate Coalition, which represents more than 130 organizations in the United Kingdom studying the effects of climate change, released a paper titled “Game Changer: How climate change is impacting sports in the U.K.” In it, the group makes the case that rising temperatures can and will have a detrimental impact on some of the area’s most popular pastimes, including golf, soccer, skiing and cricket.

According to the report, six of the seven wettest years on record in the U.K. have taken place since 2000. Citing new rainfall patterns, rising sea levels and increased storm surges, the report states that golf courses along the coasts are already dealing with the adverse effects of erosion and will continue to be faced with issues down the road.  

“Unchecked, the impacts of climate change could significantly affect the sport over the long term, particularly in Scotland,” the report states, noting that one in six of Scotland’s 600 courses are located on the coast.

The report mentions by name the Old Course at St. Andrews, the iconic Home of Golf and Open Championship venue, and Royal Troon, another cherished venue in the Open rota, as vulnerable. Other seaside courses in the U.K. that host the Open include Royal Birkdale, Royal Liverpool, Royal Lytham & St. Annes, Muirfield, Royal St. George’s, and Turnberry.

Related: What we saw during an early visit to Carnoustie as it preps for this year’s Open

The Climate Coalition used Montrose Links as a case study. The first reference to golf being played at there was in 1562. In the last 30 years, however, the North Sea has crept 70 meters closer to the course, according to research published by Dundee University.

“As the sea rises and the coast falls away, we’re left with nowhere to go,” Chris Curnin, director of golf at Montrose, is quoted in the report. “Climate change is often seen as tomorrow’s problem, but it’s already eating away at our course.”

Cumin notes that in 2017 a rock armour protecting the first green and second tee would no longer suffice in a severe storm. The course, with the help of the local council, was forced to take rocks from near the third tee and move them to the armour to help fortify the area and prevent a major storm from doing significant damage to the course.

The report quotes Steve Issac, the R&A’s director of sustainability, about growing concerns for the sport.

“It [climate change] is certainly becoming a factor,” Isaac says. “Golf is impacted by climate change more than most other sports. Trends associated with climate change are resulting in periods of course closures, even during summer, with disruption seen to some professional tournaments. We are witnessing different types and timings of disease, pest and weed outbreaks. The future threats are very real, with course managers having to show adaptation if we are to maintain current standards of course condition. It is something we take very seriously.”

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